India's GDP to grow 7.6 pc in FY26 after revamp of calculation framework
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Dated:- 27-2-2026
PTI
New Delhi, Feb 27 (PTI) India's economic growth estimate was raised to 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal on Friday following a revamp of the GDP calculation framework, underscoring the resilience of the world's fastest-growing major economy amid global trade disruptions.
The growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March, released by the National Statistics Office under a new series of national accounts, compares to the previous estimate of 7.4 per cent under the old data series, and 7.1 per cent in the previous 2024-25 fiscal year.
The calculation revamp, which included a change of base year to 2022-23 and improved capture of faster-growing segments of the economy, however, led to a moderation in real GDP growth in October-December (the third quarter of the current 2025-26 fiscal year) to 7.8 per cent from 8.4 per cent in Q2.
The methodological overhaul, aimed
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ural demand, kept the momentum in the economy.
Earlier this month, New Delhi reached an interim agreement with Washington that reduces effective tariffs to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, before the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's global tariffs.
India's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said the economic growth projection for the next fiscal has been revised upwards by 20 basis points to 7-7.4 per cent following the release of the new GDP series.
The Economic Survey presented in Parliament in January projected a growth rate of 6.8-7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2026-27.
“The economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 per cent rather than 7 per cent,” he said, adding that based on current indicators, nominal GDP growth would be close to 11 per cent and the size of the economy would comfortably cross the USD 4 trillion-mark.
Nageswaran also asserted that the Indian economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum, sup
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for FY2027, as against the 4.3 per cent assumed in the budget, assuming a nominal GDP growth of ~10 per cent in the fiscal.” Projecting a GDP growth of 7 per cent in the 2026-27 fiscal, Icra said there is a higher likelihood of a prolonged pause on the interest rate by RBI, amid expectations of a base-led uptick in the CPI inflation in the near term.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday released the New Series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates with base year 2022–23, which replaces the previous series with a base year of 2011–12. This is the 9th base revision of the GDP series.
According to the new series, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the October-December quarter of 2025-26 grew by 7.8 per cent, up from 7.4 per cent in the year-ago period, mainly driven by the manufacturing and services sectors.
Further, the GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised upwards to 8.4 per cent from 8.2 per cent in the
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per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, during 2023–24 and 2024–25. Nominal GDP has registered 11 per cent and 9.7 per cent growth rates during 2023–24 and 2024–25, respectively.
“Manufacturing sector has been the major driver in contributing to the resilient performance of the economy in consecutive three financial years after rebasing. This sector has attained double-digit growth rates in 2023-24 and 2025-26,” MoSPI said.
'Trade, Repair, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Storage' sector has attained a growth rate of 10.1 per cent at constant prices in 2025-26.
On the consumption side, both the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) have exhibited more than 7 per cent growth rate in 2025-26.
The new series uses new data sources like Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, Public Finance Management System (PFMS), E-vahan, which are more comprehensive and available at a shorter time l
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