RBI may cut interest rate by 25 bps on FridayGSTDated:- 30-11-2025PTIMumbai, Nov 30 (PTI) The RBI may trim the benchmark lending rate by 25 bps in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, as inflationary pressures are subdued, though some experts believe
RBI may cut interest rate by 25 bps on Friday
GST
Dated:- 30-11-2025
PTI
Mumbai, Nov 30 (PTI) The RBI may trim the benchmark lending rate by 25 bps in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, as inflationary pressures are subdued, though some experts believe the central bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged in the backdrop of better-than-expected GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter.
The consumer price index (CPI) based headline retail inflation is ruling below the 2 per cent lower band mandated by the government for the last two months.
Some experts, however, believe that the RBI may continue with the pause on interest rates as economic growth has picked up, sustained by fiscal consolidation, targeted public investment, and various reforms, such as the GST rate cut.
The Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled from December 3-5, 2025.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to announce the decision of rate-setting panel on December 5.
The
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growth (in H2) and inflation expected to remain well below 4 per cent until Q3 FY27, we see that there may still be a chance of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming policy,” it said.
A research report from the State Bank of India's economic research department said that with a strong GDP growth and minimal inflation, it is now for the RBI to communicate to the broader markets the rate trajectory in the MPC meeting this week, as well as continuing with the neutral stance.
On what the RBI's MPC may decide in the forthcoming policy, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda said “it would be a close call on the repo rate. Given that monetary policy is forward-looking and inflation in Q4-FY26 and FY27 is likely to be in the 4 per cent plus region, yielding a real repo rate of 1-1.5 per cent, the policy rate appears to be at a fair level.
“Under these conditions, we do not think that there should be any change in the policy rate,” he said.
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist,
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and to avoid aggravating the immediate issue on resource mobilisation for banks, as a rate reduction could move retail resources away from the banking sector,” he said.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA opined that with the Q2 FY2026 GDP growth exceeding 8 per cent, a rate cut in the December 2025 MPC review now appears unlikely, notwithstanding the series-low CPI inflation print for October 2025.
The government has mandated the RBI to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
Ashok Kapur, Chairman, Krishna Group and Krisumi Corporation, believed that with inflation hovering at record lows, the RBI unquestionably has the policy space to consider a 25-bps rate cut.
The housing and allied sectors, as well as the broader economy, are already benefiting from the GST rationalisation and the RBI's cumulative 100-bps rate cuts earlier this year, he said.
A further reduction at this juncture would undoubtedly strengthen the ongoin
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